Why are you using a token to replace text at all?
As you're not reusing the value of "{CMD}" directly, you can, as mentioned, use the "Ends With" operator (I.E. click the dropdown in your "Begin a Conditional (If Statement) Block" action that says "Equals" now, and change it to "Ends With") to check which option was spoken.
If you do insist on replacing text, there is a section at the bottom of the configuration window for the "Set a Text Value" action labeled "Text Options", where you can use the "Replace" option to replace text directly.
If you don't have the "Evaluate 'Not Set' as empty (blank)" option checked, any statement comparing that value to literal text will return false, which is the correct behavior for null ("Not set", in VoiceAttack) values as defined in the C# language specification.